To be honest, I envy the stock market and exchange rate these past few days, they have been very lively. We (real estate) have been waiting for loneliness. The comments in the background contain a lot of distrust and discouraging words. I couldn’t help but wonder, when will the real estate market come back? After all, we once had glory.
Many people may want to know about this question, many are afraid to know, and how many have seriously considered it. Apart from the polarized discourse of self media, many people are angry about discussing this frustrating topic and don’t know where to start. In their hearts, they actually want to know the answer to this question.
In the context of securities firms, speaking too deeply can easily cross the red line; Talking too much and easily getting embarrassed. The selling institution can only talk about data indicators, the bottom of the market, and the possibility of repair, and does not want to delve into this thankless topic. Because there is no benefit. Based on my experience of interacting with real estate market analysts from sellers, I guess that in the financial category, they really don’t care about this behemoth. They are still concerned about stocks.
But this topic is a concern for millions of families, because in the asset structure of most middle-class families, the weight of real estate assets is over 50%, and some even over 80%, including myself.
Practitioners are more interested in knowing this question. Although the emotion is pessimistic, the heart still expects it to come back, to the past, although it is clear that there cannot be a ‘past’. But I always hope that this storm will pass and return to normal commuting days, instead of waiting for the fear of “N+1”.
In the past few days, two articles have become popular, one with a reading volume of over 15000 (Nomura: Asia Special Report on China’s Second Wave Impact Notes), and the other with a reading volume of over 40000 (Is the 930 New Deal for Real Estate Coming?). To be honest, it gave me great confidence and encouragement. Carefully track the data, in fact, more of this traffic comes from system recommendations, which are algorithms, to put it bluntly, machines. Perhaps machines understand me better than ourselves.
A simple review shows that before September 24th, everyone would have preferred to see how serious our problems are, and I am no exception. Therefore, most of the content I posted is the opinions of authoritative figures on the economy, and I would have preferred to see other powerful individuals who have profound insights into our problems. On September 24th, when the new policy was introduced, everyone wanted to see what hope it could bring us. I woke up early this morning and started thinking again, what should I write and do next?
What is there in my knowledge structure that everyone wants to see, combined with current hot topics, after more than ten years of career in my mind? As a practitioner, I am clear in my heart. When can we get through this storm. If we were an ordinary family, to be frank, when would we be able to stop the decline? Can it be replaced? Do you want to make up for a set?
From 21.7 to now, the long bear of 3 years and 2 months has directly closed off the topic of cycles. No one talks about a rebound anymore. Now we only talk about the bottom and repair, and there is no fundamental basis for a rebound economy. Recently, we have been discussing topics such as balance sheet repair, consumption downgrade, and communication.
After rambling for so long, returning to the theme of the article, I still want to seriously study these issues, set a flag for myself, and answer and research the topic of real estate seriously. Return to the state of my passion for research driven work. I would like to start with the following topics and continuously update them, as follows:
The three major mountains of real estate: population, debt, and saturation;
Lessons from the past: Real estate reviews in developed Asian economies: Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong;
The stones from other mountains: the path of real estate development in developed countries: Germany, Singapore, the United States, and the United Kingdom;
Market Review: Our Real Estate Development Path in Recent Years;
Market opportunities in real estate: structural opportunities, urban opportunities, and category opportunities;
end.
Recommended reading:
The quantity of “houses” included in high-quality meetings of vernacular finance
Is the 930 New Policy for Real Estate Coming?
Nomura: Notes on China’s Second Wave of Shock in Asia Special Report
Gao Shanwen: Record of the latest speech on the real estate crisis
Full version of Fu Peng’s speech on September 3, 2024
Traffic is selected by machines for you, so liking is what you truly want in your heart.